Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Phil Jones = Toast

From The Associated Press, dateline London:

Britain's University of East Anglia says the director of its prestigious Climatic Research Unit is stepping down pending an investigation into allegations that he overstated the case for man-made climate change.

And from The UK Telegraph:

Prof Jones, director of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), has said he "absolutely" stands by the science produced by the centre - and that suggestions of a conspiracy to alter evidence to support a theory of man-made global warming were "complete rubbish."

He said he would stand aside as director until the completion of the independent review, which is being conducted in the wake of the allegations by climate "sceptics".

To coin a turn-of-phrase, let me be clear: Phil Jones lied. We can not say with scientific certainty what man's influence on worldwide climate is, but you can take it to the bank that Jones doesn't live in the same world as the rest of us do.

Real science depends on four things: Hypothesis, controlled experimentation, definitive conclusion, and repetition. You throw "consensus" into the mix, and it ceases to be science. By any objective measure, you simply can't do controlled experimentation with computer models because they must be programmed, and ergo can not account for random variables. Without that controlled experimentation, your conclusion can not be scientifically definitive. Of course you wouldn't want repetition in the form of "peer review" because you would become a scientific laughingstock. What are we left with? A hypothesis. The conclusion becomes "definitive" before any sort of experimentation is done.

To coin another turn of phrase, Phil Jones just got toally pwned.

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